Students of IIM-A say they have cracked the blockbuster code to help Bollywood predict a film's future at the box office — at least during the first three days.

File photo: Bollywood actor Ranbir Kapoor. Students of IIM-A say they have cracked the blockbuster code to help Bollywood predict a film's future at the box office — at least during the first three days.


AHMEDABAD: As the term 'Rs 100 crore club' replaces the good old 'silver jubilee' to describe a super hit, Bollywood has got a new formula to forecast collections during the all-important opening weekend.

Students of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A) say they have cracked the blockbuster code to help Bollywood predict a film's future at the box office — at least during the first three days.

A study by the team — visiting faculty Bharathan Kandaswamy and final year students of IIM-A — say that irrespective of the genre and content of a film, the pre-release marketing budget decides the opening weekend success for a film. The team has devised a set of mathematical and statistical models to figure out the correlation coefficient between a film's marketing budget and its success in the first three days of its release.

"Our findings suggest the marketing budget of a film and its success are correlated. The research is aimed at reducing the opening risks of a film. The model has been developed around how firms decide their budget for a film," said Kandaswamy, who teaches the course 'Contemporary film industry: A business perspective' at IIM-A.

The study looked at 50 Hindi films released in the last 10 years. Among others, films like 3 Idiots, Cocktail, Ghajini, Gangs of Wasseypur, Kahaani, Ek Tha Tiger and Bodyguard were studied. Marketing spends for movie trailers on television, out-of-home advertising, promotion on websites and celebrity promotions were taken into account.

Kandaswamy said a typical Hindi film with a budget of Rs 35-40 crore should utilize stars more effectively in promoting a film. "Even if a film is made with a tight budget of Rs 10 crore, it should spend on marketing to succeed in the opening weeke-nd," he said. "Any film with Rs 10 crore budget and no star should spend Rs 7-8 crore while a film with Rs 50-100 crore budget and a star can spend Rs 10-12 crore for promotion as small budget films require more attention as about 250 Hindi films release every year," Kandaswamy said.

However, the film's success in the first 12-14 shows doesn't mean it will be a hit. "A film may slip at the box office after a successful opening. The marketing budget will have an impact in first few days but that doesn't mean it is a hit," he said.